Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2020-2025 Forecast Report.
The report is available on DRG’s website, www.DanielResearchGroup.com.
While much of the US economy has experienced significant current downturns and the prospect of slow recovery, the demand for Personal Computing Devices has experienced both a short-term demand surge, as well as an increase in long-term demand growth. In effect, Covid-19 has behaved similarly to a California Wildfire in that it has destroyed much of the old and decaying thereby creating space for the new.
Overall, the Covid-19 Economic Shock will decrease Unit Shipments of Total Personal Computing and Communication Devices – Desktop and Mobile PCs, Tablets, and Mobile Phones – in the United States by -2.2% this year, and while increasing 2021-2025 CAGR to 3.0%. The primary reasons for the changes are reflective of structural changes in the US economy as well as changes in consumer behavior manifested in shifts to both consumer and enterprise use case priorities, including:
- 2020 consumer buying surge to support
- Work from home
- Distance Learning
- Home-based entertainment
- A long-term permanent increase in work from home.
- Migration of significant numbers of employees initially losing employment due to permanent business closures that will eventually be reemployed by the surviving businesses. These employees will need to be reprovisioned.
- Supply chain and capital investment disruptions in the deployment of 5G infrastructure.
DRG’s Current Business Economic Demographic Forecast may be downloaded from the DRG Website.
The major factor influencing the future Mobile Phone market is the adoption rate of 5G-enabled phones. DRGs current 5G forecast presented below is based on an analysis of 3G and 4G adoption rates, as well as the impact of Covid-19 on Consumer and Enterprise buying behaviors.
While Covid-19 has negatively impacted current adoption behaviors, it has only delayed the realization of demand. Our assumption is that it will take 5G 14 quarters to grow from 10% to 90% of Total Smartphone Unit Shipments, crossing 50% in the 13th quarter from the first introduction.
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecasts in this report were developed using DRG’s EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application.